Primary Fight Alters Dynamic in Race vs. Reid

Republican Sue Lowden was expected to pose a stiff challenge to Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada this fall, in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate races.

But Mr. Reid, facing a tide of unpopularity in his home state, began pounding Ms. Lowden in the past few months. Democratic party volunteers have suited up in chicken costumes at her public events to draw attention to what became known as the “chickens for check-ups” gaffe, after Ms. Lowden suggested that people should barter for health care.

The negative campaigning, along with a series of other missteps from the Lowden campaign, may have contributed to an erosion of support for a candidate the Republican establishment once had seen as its best hope for toppling Mr. Reid.

With the June 8 Republican primary approaching, support for a tea-party favorite, former GOP Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, is surging.

In a Republican voter poll taken this month and published in the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Ms. Angle had 25%. She was rapidly closing in on Ms. Lowden, a casino executive and former state Republican Party chairwoman, who had 30%. Danny Tarkanian, son of former University of Nevada, Las Vegas basketball coach Jerry Tarkanian, was at 22%. Ms. Angle’s support had risen from 5% a month earlier.

Ms. Angle represented a conservative district outside Reno for eight years, and has run and lost in Republican primaries for Congress and the state Senate.

“Reid could be getting the match-up he wants,” said David Damore, a UNLV political-science professor. “This is his dream.”

But several people close to the Reid camp say they have begun to question that assumption because Ms. Angle’s grass-roots approach could ignite a strong Republican turnout, especially in a state with a tradition of support for limited government. Also, they say they have been surprised to see Ms. Lowden make the missteps that Democrats were able to capitalize on with chicken costumes.

“Up until few weeks ago, I would have told you 100% without a doubt we prefer Sharron Angle,” said a person close to the Reid campaign. Now, although Ms. Lowden still appears the stronger challenger, that calculation has become somewhat more uncertain, he said.

Ms. Angle’s recent success mirrors a situation that has been playing out nationally, where tea-party candidates have beaten out establishment politicians.

Republican strategist Vin Weber said he expected the national Republican establishment, which has favored Ms. Lowden, would be “shaken” if Ms. Angle emerged the winner, but would ultimately unite to flood her campaign with cash and support.

For its part, if Ms. Angle wins the primary, Mr. Reid’s campaign will shine a spotlight on views that it believes lie outside the mainstream, according to a person close to the campaign. For example, Ms. Angle supports a phased-in privatization of Medicare and Social Security.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, she said she was proud of her lone “No” votes in the state assembly, such as on a 2005 bill to cap property-tax increases. Ms. Angle said she thought the structure was unconstitutional. “No one would challenge it because of the benefits that they perceived they were getting,” Ms. Angle said.

She also maintains her privatization stance.

Mr. Weber, the GOP strategist, said her positions might not be as extreme as her critics might think in the current political climate. “I think there is a real antispending mood right now in the country that makes ideas that might have seemed out of the mainstream a few years ago more acceptable,” he said.

But Ms. Angle has often been out of step with the state Republican Party. She ran against Bill Raggio, the state Senate minority leader, in a 2008 primary and refused to support him after he won the primary.

“I think she is a divisive person,” said Mr. Raggio, who backs Ms. Lowden. “She would vote ‘No’ to everything. If everybody did that, nothing would get done in a legislative body.”

Ms. Angle said she doesn’t mind being branded as someone who is unwilling to work toward compromise. “I don’t think that we’re elected to be popular,” she said. “We are elected to do the right thing, to keep our oath of office, and to uphold and defend the Constitution.”

Ms. Angle’s supporters say that the willingness to say “No” is exactly what they like about her. On April 15, the Tea Party Express, a group that organizes conservative rallies, announced that it was endorsing Ms. Angle because “she does not succumb to the whims of the political establishment,” Bryan Shroyer, the group’s political director, said.

Meanwhile, the Lowden campaign continues to stumble. In an interview with the Reno Gazette-Journal, Reno Mayor Bob Cashell, a Republican, called her “Suicidal Sue” after the chicken statement and her response to criticisms of it, as well as other campaign bungles.

Ms. Lowden maintains the perceived missteps are nothing more than potshots from a powerful opponent, Mr. Reid.

“I don’t think that talking about the things I’ve been talking about are mistakes at all,” she said. “Reid knows that I can beat him in the general election in the double digits.”