This is the most important commentary I’ve ever written.

It’s time for alarm bells. It’s time for me to play the part of Paul Revere: “The communist tyrants and dictators are coming! The communist tyrants and dictators are coming!” They’re coming first for unvaccinated Americans.

This is 1938. I’m a Jew. I now understand just a little of what it felt like to be a Jew in 1938. No, it’s not the Holocaust. Nothing can be compared to the Holocaust. Ever.

But 1938 was not the Holocaust. It was the pre-Holocaust. It was the time before the nightmare, when the foundation was being laid to destroy the freedom, free speech, businesses and lives of millions of Jews.

Everything happening today to the American people … to the U.S. Constitution … to freedom … and particularly to unvaccinated Americans reminds me of 1938. This is only the beginning. It gets much worse from here.

First, “the papers.” Vaccine mandates and vaccine passports are just like 1938, when the Gestapo demanded papers from every German.

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In 2016 I wrote in the name of Rep. Paul Ryan for president. I knew that the policies Hillary Clinton advocated were detrimental to the nation, but I simply couldn’t bring myself to vote for her rival. I found Donald Trump boorish and misogynistic, and I was dumbfounded that he had captured the GOP nomination. When the dust settled in November 2016, I was glad Mrs. Clinton was defeated. But I winced whenever I heard the president-elect speak.

Back then I thought I was a Never Trumper. Now I realize I was wrong. If the election took place today, I would vote to re-elect President Trump.

I still find Mr. Trump’s style grating, and I cringe at his narcissism. Some of his junior subordinates are wanting in talent or experience. His friendliness with the dictators of Russia and North Korea is wrong-headed, even dangerous. As for ethics, I believe he hasn’t sufficiently ensured that his hotel empire derives no profit from hosting U.S. and foreign government officials. And I think the president clearly doesn’t understand the principle of mutual gains from trade.

Notwithstanding these weaknesses, I believe that the Trump presidency has been, to a large extent, successful. Mr. Trump survived a politicized, even somewhat corrupt impeachment campaign. He has confronted a once-in-a-century virus of foreign origin in good faith and with candor. Despite often-contemptuous hostility by the elite press, and outright civil disobedience by several federal judges, the president has performed his duties and genuinely tried to keep his promises.

He not only insisted that immigration conform to the rule of law, but advocated for and (where legally permitted) built a border wall. The president has appointed more than 200 federal judges, most of whom are superb and committed to finding the law, not making it up. He has followed through on his promise to reduce taxes and to begin deregulating the economy, creating a remarkable boom that reduced unemployment for minorities to the lowest rates ever recorded.

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Not since May 1948, when both the U.S. and the Soviet Union recognized the state of Israel in the critical weeks of its war for independence, has Israel had a diplomatic month like this. On Aug. 13, the United Arab Emirates and Israel signed an agreement to normalize relations, with the formal ceremony to be held Tuesday in Washington with President Trump. On Sept. 11, Bahrain followed suit. The Palestinian Authority, holding the rotating chair of the Arab League, introduced a resolution condemning the U.A.E. move at a Zoom session of Arab foreign ministers, but in a shocking departure from past practice, the motion failed to pass. On Sept. 13 another Arab nation, Oman, issued a statement of support for Bahrain’s decision to normalize relations.