THE TO-DO LIST FOR THE NEXT PRESIDENT
Published on The Weekly Standard (www.weeklystandard.com)
www.weeklystandard.com/print/articles/unenviable-job_1051333.html
An Unenviable Job
The next president’s daunting to-do list.
Brian Hook and Neil Bradley
Vol. 21, No. 08
As we approach the third Republican presidential debate, conservatives should consider what they expect the next president to accomplish.
We certainly want the next president to repeal and replace Obamacare, undo the disastrous Iran nuclear agreement, and finally address the problem of illegal immigration. But after eight years of a president who promised to “transform” America, the “to-do” list is actually much larger.
The domestic and national security challenges that await the next president will require a candidate who can set to work the day after the election to assemble a talented team, establish clear priorities, and prepare a comprehensive plan of action.
Here are just a few of the issues that will need to be part of such a plan:
Since Obama took office, over three dozen agencies have issued over 2,500 regulations that impose excessive costs on families and businesses. Over the next 15 months, Obama’s bureaucrats will hurriedly push a flurry of additional regulations out the door.
The administration has notoriously turned to the “pen and phone” strategy. Federal agencies have issued countless directives and guidance memos, and have entered into legal consent decrees that have the effect of substantially altering federal policy. This imperial administration has even gone so far as to change policy, such as delaying parts of Obamacare, through blog posts and press releases. How many of these types of policy changes have been issued is unknowable, because there is no central database for nonregulatory actions. The next administration will need to review these regulations and policy documents and decide whether to rescind, modify, or replace them. This will require committed, competent executives and managers in every agency.
In addition to staffing the White House, the next president will need to fill about 3,000 policy-related positions (not counting ambassadors, U.S. attorneys, and marshals) across the vast federal government. Of these, about 800 will require Senate confirmation. The longer it takes to fill these positions, the longer the new administration will be delayed in reversing Obama’s policies.
Within weeks of taking office, the new president will submit a budget plan to Congress, which will serve as his or her first opportunity to begin rebuilding our nation’s military. Consider that today’s Navy is smaller than at any time since before World War I, that by 2019 the active-duty Army will have shrunk to a pre-World War II level, and that the Air Force before long will have lost half its fighter, bomber, and surveillance assets. The next president must restore American strength and, at the same time, determine the size, shape, and posture of America’s military for the next generation.
While savings from within the Department of Defense will help cover some of the costs of rebuilding the military, it is clear that the next president will need to increase overall defense spending.
At the same time, the president will face a rapidly deteriorating federal budget. According to the Congressional Budget Office, deficits will begin rising an average of 10 percent a year right after the next president takes office. Absent reform, the government will spend more on interest on the debt than on Medicaid by the end of the next president’s first term.
Tackling this fiscal reality requires reforming entitlement programs; and on that Washington has waited too long already. With the retirement of the baby-boomers, Medicare enrollment will increase by an average of nearly 10,000 seniors every day.
Reforming Medicare, Social Security, and Medicaid will require the next president to have not only sound policies but also the ability to navigate the political landmines that for so long have stymied conservative attempts at reform. For example, when House Republicans first proposed reforming Medicare, they grandfathered in all those 55 and older. Today the grandfathering applies to those 56 and older. By the next president’s first year in office, the comparable age will be 58 and over.
The next president must also address the problem of weak economic growth. Largely because of demographic changes—more retirees and fewer workers—future potential economic growth, at 2.1 percent a year, is forecast to fall well below the 3.1 percent average of the last several decades. Anemic growth directly challenges the historic assumption that rising wages and upward mobility will leave each generation better off than the last. More than any of his or her predecessors, the next president will be challenged to create the environment for a sustained economic expansion and wage growth.
While tax reform is a central element to growing the economy, it alone will not be sufficient. The next president will need to pursue reform of our regulatory, legal, and patent systems; develop a new energy strategy; strengthen cybersecurity; and improve education and skills training—to name but a few critical initiatives.
This will require working with Congress, which, after six years under the current president, has largely forgotten how the process of negotiation and enacting legislation is supposed to work. When you consider that only 35 percent of the Republicans in the House have served with a Republican president, it is clear that the next president has enormous challenges and opportunities when it comes to forging a working relationship with Congress.
Working with Republicans in Congress, however, will not be sufficient. There is virtually no chance Republicans on their own will have the 60 votes required to advance most legislation in the Senate. Furthermore, attempting to enact legislation strictly along party lines, as Obama did in his first two years in office, risks the kind of polarization that makes sustained progress towards reform difficult. Which is to say, the next president will also need to work with Democrats to build consensus.
The next president must also restore relations with America’s allies. From Mexico to Israel, from Ukraine to Japan, from India to Columbia, across the globe allies have lost confidence in American leadership and resolve. President Obama has sorely neglected our allies and lavished time and attention on adversaries such as Iran, Russia, and Cuba. Believing that concessions will soften adversaries, President Obama passively watches as these countries displace American leadership. Rebuilding the trust and confidence of our allies and restoring the healthy fear of our adversaries will require a focused effort on the part of the next president.
Tackling two or three of these issues would consume the ability of a typical administration. But the next president to succeed will need to take on all these challenges plus the many more that will flower over the balance of the Obama presidency.
As we continue to evaluate the candidates, we owe it to ourselves and to the nation to measure their skills against this daunting to-do list.
Neil Bradley is chief strategy officer for the Conservative Reform Network. Brian Hook, former assistant secretary of state for international organization affairs, is a cofounder of the John Hay Initiative.
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