From the vantage point of history, Barack Obama’s prime-time speech announcing the Iraq war’s end is less important than the speech he gave eight years ago as a state senator in Illinois. This was the October 2002 “dumb war” speech to an anti-Iraq war rally in Chicago’s Federal Plaza. Back then, Mr. Obama had a more complex view of the stakes in Iraq than he does now.

Today, the Iraq war has been reduced to not much more than a long, bloody and honorable gunfight between U.S. troops and various homicidal jihadists and insurgents inside Iraq, a war sustained by George Bush, Dick Cheney and some neocon advisers mainly to “impose” democracy on the Iraqis.

I think it is a profound mistake to confine the war’s significance to the borders of Iraq. Mr. Obama himself raised the central question about Iraq in that 2002 speech: Did Saddam Hussein pose a danger beyond his borders, or not?

“Let me be clear,” State Senator Obama told the Federal Plaza crowd, “I suffer no illusions about Saddam Hussein. . . . He has repeatedly thwarted U.N. inspection teams, developed chemical and biological weapons and coveted nuclear capacity. . . . But I also know that Saddam poses no imminent and direct threat to the United States. . . [H]e can be contained.”

This is a widely held view. The Economist’s editors this week said Mr. Obama was largely right that Iraq was a dumb war. What the war did, they say, was “rid the Middle East of a bloodstained dictator.”

It did a lot more than that.

Let us assume that Mr. Obama’s “smarter” view had prevailed, that we had left Saddam in power in Iraq. What would the world look like today?

At the time of Mr. Obama’s 2002 antiwar speech, three other significant, non-Iraqi events were occurring: Iran and North Korea were commencing toward a nuclear break-out, and A.Q. Khan was on the move.

In March 2002, Mr. Khan, the notorious Pakistani nuclear materials dealer, moved his production facilities from Pakistan to Malaysia.

In August, an Iranian exile group revealed the existence of a centrifuge factory in Natanz, Iran.

A month later, U.S. intelligence concluded that North Korea had almost completed a “production-scale” centrifuge facility.

It was also believed in 2002 that al Qaeda was shopping for nuclear materials. In The Wall Street Journal this week, Jay Solomon described how two North Korean operatives through this period developed a network to acquire nuclear technologies.

He would have restarted his nuclear program.

In short, the nuclear bad boys club was on the move in 2002. Can anyone seriously believe that amidst all this Saddam Hussein would have contented himself with administering his torture chambers? This is fanciful. Read the rest of this entry »

It isn’t often that a 1,400-year-old treaty and letters from the 1970s tell us something about current events. But since Imam Feisel Abdul Rauf, the force behind the so-called Ground Zero Mosque, has staked a political claim as a “moderate Muslim,” it’s worth taking note of some of his past writings.

Much has already been made of the imam’s comments on “60 Minutes” following 9/11, when he called America an “accessory to the crime” and announced that “Osama bin Laden is made in the USA.” He has also refused to call Hamas a terrorist organization. We’ve now come across two letters to the New York Times that reveal more about the imam’s worldview. Read the rest of this entry »