TIM PAWLENTY – MINNNESOTA’S DARK HORSE CATCHES SOME BIG BREAKS

The Wall Street Journal

  • MAY 24, 2011

By GERALD F. SEIB

  • The T-Paw moment has arrived.
For the uninitiated, T-Paw is Tim Pawlenty, recently departed governor of Minnesota and one Republican who is neither coy nor reticent about running for president. He formally launched his candidacy in Iowa Monday.

Tim Pawlenty, recently departed governor of Minnesota, formally launched his candidacy for president today. Jerry Seib looks at why few candidates have had as many things break right for them as has Mr. Pawlenty in the last three months.

Some cynics—citing his relative anonymity and his, well, nonelectric personal style—will scoff. They shouldn’t.

Few candidates have had as many things break right for them as has Mr. Pawlenty in the past three months. The shape of the Republican field, the departure of some potential rivals, the pace of the campaign and the emerging issue mix all have broken about as well for the 50-year-old Minnesotan as he could have hoped.

That doesn’t mean Republicans are enraptured by him, or that he will succeed in taking advantage. His climb remains uphill. Still, he does have a golden chance to become the chief rival to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Consider some of the advantages Mr. Pawlenty brings to the table. He offers a good narrative for today’s Republican party, which is more populist and downscale than your father’s GOP. He’s the son of a truck driver and member of a union family who was twice elected a conservative governor in the state that produced liberal icons Hubert Humphrey, Walter Mondale and current Sen. Al Franken.

He showed a grasp of tea-party-friendly populist economics when, before the 2008 campaign, he said the GOP should construct policies that showed it is the party of “Sam’s Club, not just the country club.”

As governor he fought Democrats in a budget battle that led to a government shutdown, and battled public-employee unions in a long transit strike. As Stanley Kurtz wrote recently on National Review Online, he is “Scott Walker with experience,” a reference to the new Wisconsin Republican governor, who recently caused a much bigger ruckus by doing some of the same things Mr. Pawlenty had already done in Minnesota.

As a former Catholic who has become an evangelical Christian, Mr. Pawlenty has bonds with the Christian conservatives so important in the early states of Iowa and South Carolina.

WSJ’s Jonathan Weisman reports the decision by former Indiana gov. Mitch Daniels to not enter the 2012 presidential race has allowed other candidates and those considering a run to grab some of the spotlight. (AP Photo/Winslow Townson, File)

He isn’t loved passionately by any of the important factions in the Republican party, but he is acceptable to all of them. “Pawlenty’s appeal is he can go toe to toe with Obama on policy and he has a strong conservative record governing in a liberal state like Minnesota,” says Greg Mueller, a veteran GOP conservative activist. “In this sense, his conservative credentials are solid, and I think he will receive a lot of support from conservatives around the country.”

Similarly, David Brody, Christian Broadcasting Network’s chief political correspondent, cited Mr. Pawlenty in a recent blog item as one candidate who could appeal to mainstream Republicans, tea-party Republicans and social-conservative Republicans.

More immediately, the departures of some potential Republican rivals in the past month have directly helped him. The decision by former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee not to run has opened a clearer path between Mr. Pawlenty and the crucially important religious conservatives in Iowa, home of the nation’s first caucuses.

On the List for 2012?

Read about the potential Republican presidential contenders.

He’ll probably have to compete for that vote with a fellow Minnesotan, Rep. Michele Bachmann, who seems likely to run, but his draw as a Christian conservative from a nearby state has improved with the Huckabee departure. The weekend decision by Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels to opt out eliminates a fellow Midwest governor with a similar story. The departure of Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour allows Mr. Pawlenty to romance traditional campaign donors who otherwise would have committed to Mr. Barbour.

Even the recent turn of the Washington agenda toward foreign affairs has the potential to help Mr. Pawlenty, who spent more time in recent years than most realize traveling and prepping on national-security issues.

So that’s the positive side of the ledger. The negatives also remain considerable.

Many Republicans still doubt that he has the stage presence or the personal magnetism to fill a room or to match President Barack Obama on a debate stage. He has a long way to go in establishing broad name identity and has done well, but not spectacularly, raising money.

What most worries some of Mr. Pawlenty’s friends is a tendency he has shown to try to be, on the stump, something other than what he is.

He is a solid Midwesterner who can look stilted when trying to be a firebrand in a speech, and he has opened himself up to some derision by seeming to affect a Southern Baptist twang when addressing Christian conservatives.

The real Tim Pawlenty is simply a pleasant and low-key guy—and one who now faces his best shot at breaking out.

Write to Gerald F. Seib at jerry.seib@wsj.com

Share

Leave a Reply

Search All Posts
Categories